Just reiterating those poll stats:

The Ipsos MORI survey in Sunday’s Observer newspaper showed Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party on 31 percent, the centre-right Conservatives on 37 percent and the Liberal Democrats on 17 percent.

The longest recession on record, a damaging scandal over politicians’ expenses and anger over military losses in Afghanistan have eroded support for Labour, which has been in power since 1997.

But the Ipsos MORI poll showed optimism over the economy was at its highest since 1997, suggesting Labour may be benefiting from a return of a feel good factor after the Bank of England predicted a recovery at the beginning of 2010, the paper said.

About 43 percent of the public now believe the economy will perform better during the next year, compared with 23 percent who think it will deteriorate, with 28 percent saying it will stay the same.

Factors

1.  As stated, the feelgood factor, at a time when people want good news, any good news, even if it’s not true.

2.  Cameron’s stake in the ground reneging on an EU referendum, as he was always going to do and the reason the Tories are doing so badly in the polls.

3.  The poll concentrated, as reported, on only the Big Three – over and over, always the Big Three and never the other parties.   The centrist thinking population wanted clear water between the Cameron Tories and Labour and got spin in return.  Anything smacking of “politician” these days gets up people’s noses.

4.  The fear that the Tories are going to throw people off the dole and people in work fearing for their jobs at the same time.  Just two days ago, someone said to me – if your lot get in, that’s you f—ed.

5.  The limited understanding in the broader community of what is really going down.  The ignorance is mindboggling, even in otherwise intelligent people.  Here and here.

There is most certainly going to be a faux recovery but it is simple mathematics to see that the numbers don’t add up.  We are fuelling further and further debt, the fiat system is very shaky indeed and this is how global socialism wants it – it’s much easier to takeover that way.

There is a scenario I see where just as there is an artificial and unsustainable recovery coming for a short time, built on lies and spin which people will believe in, the EU will increase money back at regional level, even as we lose our sovereignty and sovereignty will even be a dirty word, something sprouted by a discredited Westminster and kooks on the right.  This is before we even start looking at loss of freedoms.

The average Joe Bloggs is going to vote with his hip pocket and if he has short term relief and sustained jobs on EU guarantee, then which way will he lean?

How can Joe Bloggs come to see the real story?  And what of the economists?  How did they get it so wrong?

1.  This crisis was induced, it didn’t just follow the usual pattern.  Economists flatly refuse to accept that as it counters everything they’ve learned at the LSE.

2.  As Steve Keen says:  “Their modelling is equilibrium based, they believe the system always gets back to equilibrium and they ignore the role of credit and debt.

3.  Keen’s point between 10:08 and 10:24 of his speech.  I’m not going to transcribe it – please look at his quite understandable statement yourself.

[Hat tip Sackerson]

It’s like deliberately blinkering your eyes to say that there was not a strong process of sudden incompetence at strategic moments – just look at the Fed and the FOMC in this matter, along with the anomalies Karl Denninger has pointed to for so long.

So we have a scenario where an artificially sustained temporary recovery will have Joe Bloggs once again breathing more easily [and I'm sure you don't discount the power of expectations as a very real factor in recovery] , without understanding how decayed the props for the system really are or rather, have been made through this almost magnificent financial incompetence.

Then there is the bankers’ 100 year plan but let’s not stray off the topic.  In 2006, I wrote on this blog to watch 2012.  What does your humble blogger now say?

Watch 2012 and make sure you’re in non-gold and non-silver commodities, the rest in cash.  Keen:

“We’ve managed to delay the day of reckoning by the level of government spending, we haven’t addressed the actual cause.” [14:29]

Filed under: Politics & economics