Brit politics suddenly interesting – time for a coalition to win in 2010
We could call the breakaway true conservatives something like this but our partners, UKIP and LPUK would retain their own parties. Let’s start pushing for this!
It’s clear that the Tory disaffected are most disaffected and no doubt the idea of a split has been mooted. There does need to be one because there are two different parties within the one party now – Eurosceptic and Europhile. Though the UKIP and LPUK are not necessarily disaffected Tories, they are roughly in the same area of politics.
Be honest – the UKIP, though they took 20% at the last minor poll will average out at around 15%. LPUK seems to be quite silent just now but maybe are waiting for their conference before they say anything but they might count on 5-7%. For either to have a realistic show as a government, it needs the disaffected Tories to come across and form a coalition with them.
The fear of the smaller parties is that the Eurosceptic Tories who form the new party would swamp the other two but they really must look at their electability. With Hannan as an MP and the disaffected Tories comprising around 20% of the national vote, we have an already established set of MPs with experience plus the fresh air of the other two.
After the jostling was over, the correct order of precedence would be established. Naturally, some of the UKIP and LPUK would drop away in disgust, leaving an eminently electable 35% of the national vote for the coalition under the current FPTP system.
What’s in a name?
A lot. The trouble with the UKIP is the “I”. It shows itself to be a one issue party – it’s not, I know but it looks that way. The new disaffected Tories need a name which would not turn off non-conservatives or libertarians.
As Eurosceptics seem to be the majority of the Tories anyway, they’d have the moral right to keep the name but I’m thinking they would not want to – they’d want to show the break from discredited Westminster.
LPUK needs something like “freedom party” because they’re not grabbing enough people with that name.
Remember, the aim is to get into power the best way and these things need to be considered. Both the minor partners need to flesh out their policies in bread and butter areas and the Tory policy [modified] would help out here – the work’s already been done.
This could all be sorted at a January conference for the new party first and then talks with UKIP and LPUK would take place – this coalition would almost certainly go on to victory, having two months to get the policies finally settled. The country would realize and understand that this is a new thing but it’s on the right track.
Loyalty
No one is being disloyal – the disaffected Tories are still Tories, UKIP and LPUK are still themselves and such a coalition would respect this diversity. What it will do though is put the frighteners on the others because the policies of this coalition are exactly what everyone’s muttering about around the country and people would be likely to at least give them a go for one term. It would certainly grab the centre ground.
An EU Referendum would go without saying.
What are we about here?
At the moment, three likeminded groups are remaining apart in their entrenched party positions when they should be joining forces – they really should. Nigel the other night said he agreed with Dan Hannan and vice versa. Why shouldn’t they actually be in coalition together?
Answer – UKIP thinks it’s going to get enough seats in a probable hung parliament to force policy with the Tories.
Wrong, wrong, wrong!!!!
UKIP are not, never, not at all, going to change Cameron and the Europhiles through pressure. Don’t you understand, guys, that these Europhiles are already committed and have received promises and Euros to sell us out? That’s why Dave refused to commit himself – he can’t, due to his commitments.
There must be a split [always reparable at a later date] but to continue the way we are – we have no way of stopping the Euroslide. Brown will be in seventh heaven for a few weeks until the coalition gets rolling and then he won’t be laughing so much – he’ll find out about the groundswell of public opinion over the whole rubbish of the past twelve years.
New coalition – let’s get started. Let’s not wallow in despondency. Let’s do it.
This is continued on this post.
Filed under: Politics & economics
They’d have my vote!
I’d vote for such a coalition too.
Great Idea James…..now what?…..anyone up for some action and realising this idea?
I would definitely vote for them!
Sorry to be negative but I can’t see there being enough public concern over the Lisbon Treaty to sustain a viable breakaway. There is too much desire to punish Labour at the ballot box for voters to risk it.
IUNsurprisingly this coalition would not get my vote!
It’s a nice thought, but I can’t see the tories splitting, certainly not when they’re on the verge of winning an election. I guess some kind of low level split could occur.
What is true, I believe, is that a coalition is needed to overthrow the rotten political establishment. For this to work, a limited platform would have to be agreed that would be broad enough to bring different points of view together. This would require everyone laying out their sine qua nons and leaving the rest behind. Or maybe all it would take is some clever marketing and/or a charismatic leader…
Do you angry people think there is any chance today’s events could be Gordon Brown’s lifeline, by splitting the Tories and, perhaps more significantly, giving enough of a boost to UKIP to cost the Tories a significant pile of seats? Would be ironic if it did.
And on another post I saw some expressing hope for a hung parliament, but be careful what you wish for, because it could be the SNP from my neck of the dark woods that would be holding the balance of power
LPUK seems to be quite silent just now
No we are not, we are repeatedly ignored by the Media.
As Chair of the LPUK , we would support a coalition, as long as it was acknowledged as a coalition.
Personally I am not interested in forming another new party in the bankrupt FPTP system. Politics will only become more interesting when ALL strands of political thought are represented, Conservative Libertarian, Socialist,Social Democrat,Greens, Nationalist, Communist, Fascist if needs be, in a National Assembly.
We cannot afford another ‘landslide’ majority which equates to 33 % of the Vote, that is electoral dictatorship, nor ‘a stunning victory’ for the Conservatives with 19% of the available vote in Norwich North.
The Libertarian Party is in existance to represent Libertarian thought, we know we will never win a FPTP election. Therefore the LPUK does want not change but an end to this corrupt and degraded political gerrymandering.
Thanks for these, including the opposition. The LPUK comment is the most official here, of course. Trooper Thompson is closest to my idea [in gthe latter comments]. It’s not just going to happen – they’re not going to voluntarily split. It will take a catalyst, like someone of note doing a lot of phoning and mooting the idea of the coalition. A split is only attractive if there is a victory attached to the idea.
James, I can only second the views expressed by Guthrum.
I too will support such a coalition, but it must come with conditions.
I have always said that this next election is not the important one, the one after is.
The ground will be more fertile when UKIP do not make any traction, LPUK barely scratch the surface, and Eurosceptic Conservatives are sidelined in the soft left new Tory Party viz Hannan.
Sign me up to that, UKIP division.
I was thinking EXACTLY THIS today. How weird is that? You are right, Conservatives are now two parties. I don’t feel I have any common ground with Europhile Tories, its like talking to strangers. I’d vote for a party like you suggest, with Hannan, Carswell, Redwood?, Farage and LPUK included. In a heartbeat. And Id campaign, donate and canvas too.
Pardon the long post – it just kept on coming!
I’m not sure LPUK should ditch “libertarian” as part of its name. Libertarianism is now a recognised set of political principles, brought to the public’s attention by the credible Mayor of Doncaster.
Any new party would have to ensure that it cannot be easily labelled (in a derogatory fashion) by the BBC or any other party. So it has to be organised, be scrupulously clean and entirely upfront with its potential voters. Although, a coalition would be better than a new party IMV.
It might be worth fielding some surveys (I and many other bloggers would be delighted to carry such a survey on my blog) to ascertain what people would expect in return for their votes.
While it’s a good idea to nick some Tory policies, we ought to be careful of tripwires. The Tories will have worked out answers to questions on their policies and will have tested them for credibility. Any policies of theirs the coalition nicked would have to be similarly tested.
Not least, any coalition would need to work out where the power goes on winning a chunk of seats, as squabbles over power would be a gift to the other parties and make policy adjustments tricky indeed.
Dan Hannan has said that he would never join UKIP and he appears to be a man of his word.
Andrew, those who are considering voting for UKIP/LPUK would never vote for Brown. In years gone by, they would never have considered voting for small parties. I don’t think we need to worry about them at all.
Internet radio: A coalition would benefit from its own broadcasting medium (besides youtube and blogs). It’s simple enough to set one up and I’m sure there are plenty of people with broadcasting experience within the coalition parties.
What will you hold a referendum over?
The EU owns the UK now and isn’t going to let them out again, at least not whilst there still is money to be extracted.
Any attempt to split will be met with economic and physical warfare if intimidation and blackmail fails to impress.
Stick a fork into England, you guys are done — as the Germans say: Klappe zu, Inselaffe tot.
kthxbye…
(feel free to cheer me up and convince me that it ain’t so, I love England(the one that once was, not the current mess), and I’m totally gutted that it’s gone!)
What I find stunning is the lack of resolve in a sovereign nation.
Together with America, the UK is still a force to be reckoned with in terms of economic size. Brown has acted to nobble the country and some of the readers’apparent determination to yet again vote Labour [an amazing stand to take, given our condition], is puzzling.
Even the Tories speak of a “done deal” and that we can only now “negotiate some of our powers back”or that we need the approval of all the other nation members to take back powers.
I can’t believe I’m hearing this.
Look, a bunch of traitors in our elite has handed sovereignty to their elite, illegitimately and without reference to our people, nay, over the top of our people. We had no say.
We only need one leader to stand and acknowledge that Europe has no say-so in our affairs, which is so. We unilaterally withdraw from the illegitimate and invalid agreements so far and renegotiate our trading relations with each EU nation. They’ll threaten a trade boycott but they can’t – there’s too much money involved and the UK is a financial hub in the world.
What tosh for anyone to come out and say it’s too late. There is never any “too late” in the history of nations. This nation will say, in the politest way, thanks but no thanks. The lion’s tail has been tweaked for long enough. Good luck with your union.
When the EU howls, “You can’t do that!” we reply, “According to your very own rules but your rules don’t apply to a sovereign nation.”
End of story.
War? Oh yes, a threat but we’re in NATO and the US is also. It’s apaper tiger threat and they know it, so they go for this international court rubbish. No powerful nation stands for that. They’ll say it’s the collapse of the world. We say that it’s your doing, not ours.
We are a sovereign nation and now we’re ready to trade with you.
Another LPUK in favour with caveats, such as the parilament to be focused on just unpicking the EU tentacles, repealing the acts, abolishing the bodies and then disolving, ideally with ER in place so people are better represented.
Yes – I’ve put up a post just now which addresses many of these.
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I think that a Commons coalition for a referendum might have some purchase within Westminster – let’s see where Cameron’s credibility goes when he has to govern with the help of Labour or the DUP, but I think the timescale and dynamics for another new party are off.
A grand alliance inside and outside the next Parliament, yes; something the MSM could not ignore and wold have to spend time slandering, with Tory patriots, UKIPpers and others saying ‘A plague on all their houses’ at every opportunity, and getting out there to the people above the political class’s heads [or below their radar] – now THAT would be something to threaten and even prevent a federast Cameron’s second term.
It’s doable.
Over at Independence Home they seem to have similar ideas, and gioven the way we are right now, it’ slikely the righ ttime to pounce.
For comparison, in the USA Conservative Party candidate is standing against a democrat in New York now that the RINO has jacked in the race and endorsed the Democrat.
On thing’s for sure – we aren’t going to let them get away with selling us to the Reds and the Greens without a fight.
The timing is off, NNWer because it is being forced on us. I think they won’t split before being elected but might very well after that. There are the events of 1979 to haunt the party.
Fausty – sound points there too.
“I think they won’t split before being elected but might very well after that. ”
Bring the jubilee.
Before June 2010 this is just not going to happen.
What would be helpful would be for UKIP and LPUK not to field candidates against know Eurosceptic or indeed any Conservative candidates for this election only.
This would save you money and deliver a gift of say 10 – 15 seats – which in the final arithmetic of the next general election could be the difference between a Conservative govt and a Lib/Lab pact Govt.
The Lib/Lab pact will probably push for the Euro and common defence structures as well as give in on the forthcoming EU request to hand over our security council seat ( as Brown’s hamfisted down grading of UK diplomatic clout to the G20 from the now almost defunct G7 shows ).
Look at what happened in New York when a minor party forced a republican candidate to withdraw from a election. ( The New York Conservative party – not even the same as the US equivalent).
That’s the way to far more influence than can ever be achieved under the current configuration.
There is a danger that those of us who agree on a Eurosceptic viewpoint will cut of our nose to spite our face and let the Euro-Federalist Lib Dems and Labour dismantle our country.
LPUK since its inception has spent its time bickering, promoting drugs and putting down UKIP. Now there has been a shift in the politics of the country towards the despised UKIP, you want to be their bestest friends… well fancy that, who would have thought ?
UKIP 2,440,000 votes in EU election
LPUK 36 was it in Norfolk ?
“LPUK seems to be quite silent just now but maybe are waiting for their conference before they say anything but they might count on 5-7%”….
Oh dear dear dear, wishful thinking trumps all rational thought.
LPUK since its inception has spent its time bickering, promoting drugs and putting down UKIP
Huh ?
But you still have not got an MP have you ?
It’s not helpful to dwell on past sensitivities when what we’ve got to do is get ourselves out of the mess we’re in. We are roughly in the same political area – small government, incentives for startups and medium and small businesses, jobs on offer. Peeling back the insane Brownian and EU laws is an imperative.
We’re going to need the total numbers of all of us, retaining our own party structures [I'm dissident "Dry" Tory] and getting this lot out of power – that’s our imperative. Then we can deal with our grievances later. Coalition is the only way. It worked in the last war and in the first – it will work again.
“LPUK since its inception has spent its time bickering, promoting drugs and putting down UKIP”
that’s what I said, evidence to back it up can be checked by reading old posts on OH and DK’s sites.
No we have no MP at present but I will bet you pound to a pinch of pooh that Nigel will poll more than 36
UKIP have made allowance in their calculations for the same number of dyslexics who mark the LPUK box by confusing it with UKIP….. and decided they pose no threat to UKIP getting a majority.
Well if it keeps you happy- you win
LPUK in existance for two years only one councillor, Norwich North was a major disappointment. UKIP, how long have you been in existance?, how many Westmister MP’s 0. That is the way it is going to stay. You will never win in this rigged system.
We are solvent, you need a major whipround because you owe quite a bit of cash in Legal fees fighting the Electoral Commission
Either we sink our differences and face the EU State. Your call.
Its not about the number of votes its about the number of seats
[...] to the suggestion of a coalition with breakaway Conservatives to fight the next election, on which James Higham did the basic analysis figures only last [...]
I’ve had second thoughts – maybe there’s a sooner way to do this. Or the road may be long, but.. Whatever: the meaning of Guthrum’s comment just above is essentially correct – “Either we sink our differences and face the EU State. Your call.”
We conservatives have it on the most respectable of authorities.
James,
Nice idea, but feel the thought of a ‘coalition’ with parties retaining their identity and name is a non-starter. Likewise the thought that Hannan and Carswell would jump ship.
What I do agree is that all Eurosceptics do need to get together – it means therefore a new party being formed? Not that much time to get everything agreed, a party set up etc prior to the GE?
Anyway have sent you a PM.
The Lisbon Treaty has been the creeping mortality of the Conservative Party for more than a year.
Cameron was desperate to make sure it wasn’t ratified before the election, because of course he wouldn’t be able to promise a referendum once it was in place. Eurosceptics who suggest otherwise are wrong. Imagine the wording…”If you had had a vote on the Lisbon Treaty, how would you have voted? Yes or No.”
Meanwhile, Brown was desperate to get it ratified before the election, because he knew what kind of position that would put Cameron in and now, if he plays it right, he can goad Cameron on the referendum issue relentlessly and cause a split in the party.
In a way, this validates the Eurosceptic thesis: that the EU was, is and always will be a game played for national interests. There is no common European political society at all, just a convenient institution for politicians’ games.
Nevertheless, consumatum est. The cleverest part of Orwell’s 1984 was the last page, when he mischievously plays with the idea that the protagonist was much happier when he gave up the struggle, stopped forcing himself to hold on to the truth against all the pressure to believe the lies, and with an exultant shout runs out into the street to dance in celebration at the phony news of Big Brother’s latest military triumph. For the first time in his life, he feels at peace.
I think a lot of us have got to the stage where it’s either that, or emigration. Ho for Ontario, tendebant manus ripae ulterioris amore…
I joined LPUK on principle. I shall not be renewing my subscription on practicalities. “What practicalities?”, you might ask. “Exactly!”, I would answer.
Edgar You are a Freeman, nobody is forcing you to do anything that you don’t want to do
On Independence Home they’re coming out with this too. The thing is, here we are on our blogs but how to get this across to the Eurosceptic Tories to get them off their butts? I know one or two but that’s hardly enough.
James, how about via Facebook Groups and Twitter? There are loads of Eurosceptic Facebook Groups.
Also, those opposed to the EU are very likely to be opposed to ID (i.e., No2ID groups, etc.
Also, on Facebook, a known Eurosceptic’s page (e.g., Farage) is likey to have Eurosceptic friends.
From ConHome:
“Dan Hannan MEP has resigned from the frontbench in the European Parliament. On his website he explains why he still supports a referendum. He has told me that he is staying off the airwaves and adding nothing to his statement on his blog.”
Interesting indeed!
I don’t think we, as a nation, can afford to wait for the election after next. We must break the political establishment in this coming election, or we may never get another chance, certainly another better one.
The country is sick of these politicians, and most people realise that there is no fundamental difference between the major parties, and they are all rotten to the core.
Those who vote for one of these parties will do so with no enthusiasm, merely because they hate the other ones more, and they fear that if they sit on their hands and don’t vote, they’ll live to regret it.
If you consider what is actually necessary to save this nation, you couldn’t really call it anything less than a revolution. The LibLabCon must be overthrown, and it can be done peacefully, if the right formula can be found.
I think we need to bear in mind that the objective is to stop the monopolisation of the main parties. We essentially have a two (sort of three) party country and they’re aren’t going to surrender without a fight.
If we could just keep a coalition together long enough to win an election, the separate parties could then decide what they want to do.
The alternative is that the BNP gathers speed and nobody wants that!
It’s on the move and I’ll put out ideas to a few people this evening – have to attend to work related matters now.
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[...] James Higham of Nourishing Obscurity has high hopes of a radically different coalition: Brit politics suddenly interesting – time for a coalition to win in 2010, an idea on which he elaborates further in Steps to getting this coalition [...]
My heart is with you, but it’s too late for this. The European Union has been formed, and Britain is part of it. We have two choices now: wallow in the past and be irrelevant, or get stuck into Europe and make it a better (i.e. more Conservative) place. In fact, the EPP is the leading EU party, so we will have many allies. The more you succeed in splitting the Tories, the more the Socialists will be laughing. And they are certainly not Eurosceptic.
Adam, there are certain errors in that thinking.
1. The conservatives will alter nothing in Europe – it’s a fait accompli. The EU never have and never will concede powers back to a state they consider is finished. England is 9 regions on the EU map.
2. The noose is about to be tightened. It’s now or never.
Ah but James, I wasn’t talking about getting powers back. I was talking about fighting for right of centre politics at the European level. I agree that repatriation of powers is a non-starter. Sorry, but it’s not now or never. It’s already over.
Adam,
It’s clear from the comments that the fight is not over. The fact that cameron said so has spurred us on to this. It may not work but it might if enough people get behind it.